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“Searching for clarity in bizarre times”
Will inflation ever moderate? How many interest rate hikes are in store? To what extent will GDP growth slow? Are stocks in for a down year? How is the war in Ukraine affecting markets? Lately it seems like there are more questions than answers, but unusual times call for a thoughtful framework in plotting the path forward. Although there has been a multitude of bizarre factors coming into play, the view through our lens has only changed a little. We still hold the same year-end targets; however, the path appears to have changed...
“2022: A muted kind of year”
Prepare for “meh”….. Unlike what we have experienced for the last three years, 2022 is likely to be much more muted in terms of economic growth, stock market growth and overall portfolio performance in general. We’re not calling for a recession or even a bear market. But we do think this year will be far more lackluster than recent years with likely a fair bit of choppiness and a greater potential for a routine 10% correction. There are several factors we see contributing to this environment: continued elevated inflation levels, decelerating economic growth and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are among the chief factors. However, there should still be some bright spots that could bring a little shine…
“Better than a punch in the nose...”
Things aren’t great, but they’re also not that bad. We are optimistic through the end of the year but see clouds forming for 2022. The popular saying of one of our clients comes to mind. He uses this phrase no matter if things are better than expected or not trending in the right direction. And you know what – he’s right! It is better than a punch in the nose….. !
“Land of the midnight sun”
During summertime in Alaska, there are 23 hours of daylight. Creating a very odd feeling that really messes with your rational. It feels like morning even when its midnight. A surprisingly similar feeling to present day market conditions, where we find ourselves dealing with rare circumstances that require adaptive thinking. However, if navigated correctly, you can see pure beauty in what was supposed to be darkness.
"I now walk into the wild.” ― Christopher McCandless, Into the Wild