“The road back to normal”
What a strange journey we have been on so far this year, and continue to wonder what lies ahead. At this point, our map has flown out of the window and we are now purely relying on our “gut feeling” of where to turn next. That said, “gut feelings” are rooted in fundamental knowledge and instincts that make up the core of our understanding. With the right discipline, our instincts can prove very useful in times of uncertainty and can allow us to get back on the right road…
“There was nowhere to go but everywhere, so just keep on rolling under the stars.
― Jack Kerouac, Author of On the Road
“What Happens Next”
Within a matter of weeks, our world was shut down. COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on people, economies and markets. Never before have we shut down economies to this extent. Fortunately, however, we came in to this with arguably the strongest economy in history, we have companies all over the world working on a treatment or vaccine, and even though this is an unsettling time, we will get through this -and probably faster than you think.
“Roaring into the 20’s”
We closed out 2019 with a lot of roaring momentum in both the US economy and the financial markets.
With last year’s two main challenges (Federal Reserve and China Trade) being taken off the threat list, good times should keep on rollin’! But unlike the Gatsby party that was 2019, we think this year will be more like your cousin’s birthday party. Still fun, but nothing to brag about…
“O ye, of little faith”
As the most hated bull market in history rolls on, there are plenty of “doubting Thomases” making their voices heard. As we enter the 4th quarter, the S&P 500 has had the best first three quarters of a year since 1997! Nonetheless, the chorus of nay-sayers continue to sing their tune, which creates skepticism for market participants. However, our view is that the actual data overcomes the skeptical attitudes and provides another leg higher for portfolios here in the 4th quarter…
Quarterly Playbook- 3rd Quarter 2019
“Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace” – Mike Ditka
Over the past year, this market has certainly tested our thinking at times but through discipline and planning, our inner peace remains. Our “Nervously Optimistic” description is still intact, with the preponderance of data still affording us overall optimism, yet headlines and attitudes generate an overhang of nervousness that would otherwise be enthusiasm…
Quarterly Playbook- 2nd Quarter 2019
Don't stop believin'.......
This market’s just a small town girl, livin’ in a lonely world.It’ll take the midnight train goin’ anywhere! We would call this market environment “Nervously Optimistic” due to the fact that it is having a hard time finding any love, despite being fundamentally attractive and solid recent performance. However the commentary seems as if investors, media, analysts, etc. are scouring to find any signs of economic or market weakness, but they’re not finding much. Maybe they were just born to sing the blues… In the meantime, the economy and equity markets keep going on and on and on and on….