4Q19 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook - 4th Quarter 2019

“O ye, of little faith”

As the most hated bull market in history rolls on, there are plenty of “doubting Thomases” making their voices heard.  As we enter the 4^th quarter, the S&P 500 has had the best first three quarters of a year since 1997! Nonetheless, the chorus of nay-sayers continue to sing their tune, which creates skepticism for market participants. However, our view is that the actual data overcomes the skeptical attitudes and provides another leg higher for portfolios here in the 4^th quarter…

3Q19 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook- 3rd Quarter 2019

“Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace” – Mike Ditka

Over the past year, this market has certainly tested our thinking at times but through discipline and planning, our inner peace remains.   Our “Nervously Optimistic” description is still intact, with the preponderance of data still affording us overall optimism, yet headlines and attitudes generate an overhang of nervousness that would otherwise be enthusiasm… 

2Q19 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook- 2nd Quarter 2019

Don't stop believin'.......

This market’s just a small town girl, livin’ in a lonely world.
It’ll take the midnight train goin’ anywhere! We would call this market environment “Nervously Optimistic” due to the fact that it is having a hard time finding any love, despite being fundamentally attractive and solid recent performance. However the commentary seems as if investors, media, analysts, etc. are scouring to find any signs of economic or market weakness, but they’re not finding much. Maybe they were just born to sing the blues… In the meantime, the economy and equity markets keep going on and on and on and on….

1Q19 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook - 1st Quarter 2019

Attitude Adjustment.

We will be the first to admit that markets have been much more volatile than we expected. Furthermore, the downdraft in the 4^th quarter seems extremely unwarranted. Nevertheless, what we see is a “Crisis of Confidence” brought on by careless Federal Reserve comments, trade tensions, and pessimistic attitudes. This has caused risk assets to sell off in broad fashion.  However, the “hard data” remains quite strong and we believe this quarter will bring a positive attitude adjustment back to the markets…

4Q18 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook - 4th Quarter 2018

Aloha.

Hello. Goodbye. These are both meanings of “Aloha” but there is also much more to it. The same can be said about the current financial environment. Many are asking whether we are saying hello to a new era of financial strength or saying goodbye to a mature economic cycle. Our view is probably a mix of both, however, there is much more to it beyond the statistics being quoted.

3Q18 Quarterly Playbook Preview:

Quarterly Playbook- 3rd Quarter 2018

If you build it, they will come...

Just like the Field of Dreams, we spent the first half of this year building the “field” (economics) and are now
waiting for the “players” (markets) to take their positions…. However, it seems as if the markets are still getting their roster
together and haven’t been able to decide the line-up. This might have something to do
with the “grounds crew” (Washington and the Fed) changing some of the configurations…